More Warm Fall Days in a Warming Climate
How can a changing autumn affect your health?
A trend graph for the average number of days above normal over the past five decades during the fall season. Concord NH 1970-2020.
Our fall season is changing
Autumn is one of my favorite times of the year in New Hampshire. After a long hot summer, it feels like we deserve a few weeks of nice warm days and crisp, cool nights. I love harvesting winter squash in my garden and knowing that soon I will have a break from yard work. I can’t believe we haven’t had a frost yet (at the time of this writing in late October, 2021) in Bedford, NH. This year, the month of September started warm, with many days in the mid-80s. And then in October, we saw many days in the 70s as the waves of bold multi-color trees began to form in the North Country and creep southward. Who knows what November will bring?
According to the National Climate Assessment, we do know that the Northeast has been getting warmer and wetter, with more severe weather and sea level rise over the past several decades. Fall weather is a lot less fleeting than it used to be. On average, the Concord NH area has about 15 more days of above normal temperatures when compared to the 1970s, essentially adding 2 more weeks of warm weather each fall. The first frost occurs an average of 12 days later in the fall for the Concord NH area compared to five decades ago. The Central NH area is seeing less days below freezing and the temperature is also rising during the fall season. On average, the central NH region is 3.6 degrees warmer during the fall when compared to norms in the 1970s.
Changing seasons, changing health
There seems to be good news and bad news in the changing climate and weather patterns. We can all enjoy more mild autumn days, yet we have to be cautious about how these changes might affect the health of our families, our patients, and ourselves.
Rising temperatures and warmer days can have a significant impact on human health via exposure to a longer pollen season, a longer tick season, and the potential for wildfires (here and smoke blowing in from out West), and moderate heat stress. As a physician, I am concerned about how the longer fall season might be affecting the health of people across the state.
I’m an anatomic and clinical pathologist with 12 years of experience. Pathologists are physicians who specialize in diagnosing disease by examining tissues, blood, and other specimens from patients. We use our microscopes to examine patients' tissue specimens, looking for cancer, infections, or other conditions, and we are responsible for testing performed in the laboratory. This summer, while examining blood smears, I identified tiny ring-shaped parasites called Babesia in several of my patients’ blood smears.
Babesiosis is a disease people contract after being bitten by an infected tick. Patients infected with Babesia should also have a test for other tick-borne illnesses which are often more serious. The warming from climate change is expanding the areas where these ticks can live, lengthening the season in which they are active and out looking for our blood, and providing a more favorable habitat for reservoir hosts such as deer and the white footed mouse. This may increase transmission of tick-borne pathogens that cause diseases like Lyme disease, Anaplasmosis, Babesiosis, and a growing list of others. (CDC, DHHS update).
In addition, a recent study found that the pollen season in the United States increased by 20 days and contains 21% more pollen since 1990. These changes are leading to an increased incidence in seasonal allergies and asthma. Warmer weather in the fall also may lead to more heat stress, as well as a longer season of wildfires with the potential for smoke to damage our lungs from fires both here and the west.
Taking action, raising hope
In the fall, I love to spend time outside in my garden or hiking in the woods with my teenage daughters, husband, and three senior dogs, enjoying the beautiful fall colors and cool temperatures. Lately, I spend a lot of time thinking about the future we are leaving for our children. Our children are experiencing anxiety about the world they live in and their futures. A recent study asked 10,000 young people in 10 countries how they felt about climate change and government responses to it. The results found that most respondents were concerned about climate change, with nearly 60% saying they felt ‘very worried’ or ‘extremely worried.’ Nearly half (45%), of participants said their feelings about climate change impacted their daily lives.
I tell my children that I truly believe in the amazing ability of people to work together, innovate, and solve huge problems that seem unsolvable at first. I think back to the crisis surrounding CFCs depleting the ozone layer in the atmosphere. Once people were sufficiently aware and informed of the problem, policymakers, scientists and companies around the world joined forces to find a solution. I am amazed by the scientific advances in green technology, carbon capture, and many other areas. I truly believe that we can work together and tackle the problem of climate change. However, we need to work together to raise awareness and demand policy that leads to implementation of solutions.
A color-metric map of national temperature trends that shows the change in degrees above normal over the past five decades. United States 1970-2020.
What can we do? Here are a few small steps to make a difference.
1) We can enjoy the fall weather by getting out there to exercise and move. Exercise is known to improve physical health, and also buffers us from stress and reduces the levels of anxiety and depression. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/depression/in-depth/depression-and-exercise/art-20046495
2) We can learn more about tick-borne diseases, how to prevent them, and how to diagnose and treat these diseases in our patients. https://www.dhhs.nh.gov/dphs/cdcs/alerts/documents/tickborne-diseases-update-2021.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/pubs/vector-borne-disease-final_508.pdf
3) Join NHHCW to discuss the changing climate with your friends and peers, learn more, and take action.
Deborah Gerson, MD
